Great Courses by Steven Novella, M.D.
Maximize probability of being correct while being open to new ideas.
Be on guard with controversial subjects frequently covered in media, such as:
- psychics
- ESP tricks
- UFO’s/ghosts/Big Foot
- astrology – false patterns, data mining
- pseudoscience
- conspiracy theories
- cults
- evolution deniers
- September 11 and Kennedy/Lincoln
- out of body experience (oxygen deprivation)
- magical thinking
Neuroscience of our thinking
Logic, reasoning
Scientific skepticism
Biases
- cognitive bias
- cognitive flaws
Fallacies
- retrofitting evidence
- collective wish fulfillment
- factoids
- ad hominem arguments
- inherent tendency to fall into cognitive trap of grand conspiracies
Delusions
- emotionally invested in conclusion
- twist facts and logic to fit desired conclusion
- rationalize
- twist facts to fit theories
- fixed belief not changed in overwhelming contradictory evidence
Urban myths – friend of a friend of a friend stories.
Oversimplified – things happen for a reason
Cognitive dissonance
Confabulation – make up missing details
Confirmation bias – cherry pick data that confirms our belief.
Superstitions – control over random events such as in sports (magical thinking)
Errors of perception
Optical illusions (magicians, moon over horizon vs high in sky)
Memory degrades over time, loss of info
Memory is constructed, recreating memory, change details and fade over time.
Suggestibility, false memory
Recognize fallibility of human memory.
Constructed reality – illusion constructed by our brain. memory is reconstructed.
Pattern recognition, visual patterns, metaphor, abstract thinking, imbue emotional meaning into patterns
Paradoilia – tendency to see patterns in random noise, ie seeing random animals in clouds
Audio paradoilia – haunted house, random noise in backward play. brain fits into a familiar pattern
Problem is assume patterns are real and use data mining to confirm an idea rather than make hypothesis and confirm patterns are real by testing against independent set of data.
Rationalize vs reasoning
Rationalize starts with conclusion and argument to fit conclusion.
Reasoning is process and conclusion flows from logic. When you don’t tie to conclusion, will not fee emotional dissonance with new data that shows conclusion is wrong.
Assertion is not argument. Argument must start with premise then logically deriving conclusion.
Premise – fact, starting point.
If premise false, then argument is unsound.
Argument is weak if premise is assumption.
Argument is valid. Impossible for conclusion to be false if premise is true.
Pseudoscience – claims to be science but lacks method. Need to test alternatives and evidence that could prove your theory incorrect.
Conspiracy theory – any evidence lacking for the conspiracy is explained as cover up of conspiracy. Renders immune to any possible refutation, immune to burden of proof, closed belief system. Insulation from external refutation, all evidence against conspiracy can be explained away as being part of conspiracy itself.
Superstition – illusion of control