Maximize probability of being correct while being open to new ideas.

Be on guard with controversial subjects frequently covered in media, such as:

• psychics
• ESP tricks
• UFO’s/ghosts/Big Foot
• astrology – false patterns, data mining
• pseudoscience
• conspiracy theories
• cults
• evolution deniers
• September 11 and Kennedy/Lincoln
• out of body experience (oxygen deprivation)
• magical thinking

Neuroscience of our thinking

Logic, reasoning

Scientific skepticism

Biases

• cognitive bias
• cognitive flaws

Fallacies

• retrofitting evidence
• collective wish fulfillment
• factoids
• ad hominem arguments
• inherent tendency to fall into cognitive trap of grand conspiracies

Delusions

• emotionally invested in conclusion
• twist facts and logic to fit desired conclusion
• rationalize
• twist facts to fit theories
• fixed belief not changed in overwhelming contradictory evidence

Urban myths – friend of a friend of a friend stories.

Oversimplified – things happen for a reason

Cognitive dissonance

Confabulation – make up missing details

Confirmation bias – cherry pick data that confirms our belief.

Superstitions – control over random events such as in sports (magical thinking)

Errors of perception

Optical illusions (magicians, moon over horizon vs high in sky)

Memory degrades over time, loss of info

Memory is constructed, recreating memory, change details and fade over time.

Suggestibility, false memory

Recognize fallibility of human memory.

Constructed reality – illusion constructed by our brain. memory is reconstructed.

Pattern recognition, visual patterns, metaphor, abstract thinking, imbue emotional meaning into patterns

Paradoilia – tendency to see patterns in random noise, ie seeing random animals in clouds

Audio paradoilia – haunted house, random noise in backward play. brain fits into a familiar pattern

Problem is assume patterns are real and use data mining to confirm an idea rather than make hypothesis and confirm patterns are real by testing against independent set of data.

Rationalize vs reasoning

Rationalize starts with conclusion and argument to fit conclusion.

Reasoning is process and conclusion flows from logic. When you don’t tie to conclusion, will not fee emotional dissonance with new data that shows conclusion is wrong.

Assertion is not argument. Argument must start with premise then logically deriving conclusion.

Premise – fact, starting point.

If premise false, then argument is unsound.

Argument is weak if premise is assumption.

Argument is valid. Impossible for conclusion to be false if premise is true.

Pseudoscience – claims to be science but lacks method. Need to test alternatives and evidence that could prove your theory incorrect.

Conspiracy theory – any evidence lacking for the conspiracy is explained as cover up of conspiracy. Renders immune to any possible refutation, immune to burden of proof, closed belief system. Insulation from external refutation, all evidence against conspiracy can be explained away as being part of conspiracy itself.

Superstition – illusion of control

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